Boeing Says China Will Need 9,240 New Jets by 2045 as Its Fleet More Than Doubles

On November 3, 2026, Boeing said China’s commercial fleet will grow from nearly 4,500 airplanes today to more than 9,800 by 2045. Getting there takes 9,240 new deliveries over 20 years, according to the company’s 2026 China Commercial Market Outlook, presented in Beijing.

Boeing expects passenger traffic in China to grow 5% a year. It points to a growing middle class, more visa-free travel destinations and continued spending on airports and other aviation infrastructure.

“China’s passenger air traffic outpaces growth globally,” said Darren Hulst, Boeing’s vice president of Commercial Marketing, in the company’s announcement.

What the forecast covers

Single-aisle jets dominate the outlook. Boeing expects Chinese airlines to take 7,215 of them, or 78% of all deliveries, for domestic flying and regional routes across Asia Pacific and Central Asia.

Boeing also predicts that by 2045 China’s domestic market will become the largest in the world. That is the growth the single-aisle numbers are built on.

Long-haul routes from China to Europe, the Americas, Africa and the Middle East are expected to grow faster than the market overall. Boeing puts widebody demand at 1,460 airplanes, plus 405 regional jets.

For cargo, Boeing sees demand for 560 freighters by 2045, counting both new-build and converted aircraft. Its delivery table counts 160 new freighters inside the 9,240 total.

China’s fleet is now the second largest of any country, Boeing says, and 42% of the new airplanes will replace older ones rather than add capacity. The company also expects Chinese airlines to need 425,000 new pilots, technicians and cabin crew over the period.

How it compares with the 2024 outlook and Airbus

Boeing’s August 2024 China outlook, also presented in Beijing, forecast 8,830 deliveries through 2043 and a fleet growing from 4,345 to 9,740 airplanes. The new edition covers a window that starts and ends two years later, so the two are not a perfect match.

Boeing China outlook	2024 (to 2043)	2026 (to 2045)
Total deliveries	8,830	9,240
Single-aisle	6,720	7,215
Widebody	1,575	1,460
Regional jets	365	405
New freighters	170	160
Annual passenger traffic growth	5.9%	5%
Fleet at end of period	9,740	More than 9,800

The direction is clear even so. Boeing now expects slower traffic growth and fewer widebodies, but more single-aisle jets, so narrowbody demand is doing even more of the work.

Airbus’s number is lower. Its Global Market Forecast for 2026 to 2045 says China will need 8,830 new passenger aircraft, more than 20% of the 42,060 it expects worldwide, according to an Airbus release from September 2026.

Boeing’s passenger total for the same 20 years, leaving out freighters, is 9,080. Each company builds its forecast on its own assumptions and aircraft categories, so the gap of roughly 250 jets is a rough guide, not a like-for-like difference.

Who will build them

That question is the real contest. Airbus assembles A320 Family jets in China, and on September 16, 2026 it delivered the first one from its second final assembly line, in Tianjin: an A320neo for China Eastern Airlines.

China’s own single-aisle jet, the COMAC C919, is aimed at the same demand. It flew its first international route in August, but output is still small.

Consultancy IBA counted 31 C919s in service at the end of 2025 and expects about 28 deliveries in 2026, Leeham News reported. Even IBA’s forecast of 93 a year by 2030 would cover only part of the single-aisle demand Boeing describes.

Boeing itself is working back in after years of few new Chinese orders. In May 2026 it confirmed an initial commitment from China for 200 aircraft, which Caixin described as its first deal in the country in nine years.

Boeing told Caixin it expects to win more Chinese orders. How many of the 9,240 jets in its own forecast end up as Boeings will depend on those deals.