Ryanair Trims Its Winter Schedule and 2027 Growth Target as Fuel Costs Climb

On September 2, 2026, Ryanair cut its full-year passenger forecast for the 12 months to March 2027 from 216 million to 214 million and said it would pull capacity out of its loss-making winter schedule. The airline pointed to its exposure to unhedged jet fuel, which is trading near $140 a barrel.

What Ryanair announced

The change came in Ryanair’s monthly traffic update. The carrier flew 22.2 million passengers in August, up 6 percent year on year, at a 96 percent load factor.

Summer traffic from April to October is still expected to grow more than 5 percent, to about 145 million passengers. Winter traffic from November to March is now expected to be broadly flat, with no year-on-year growth.

Ryanair said flying less this winter should cut its seasonal losses by 70 million to 100 million euros, according to reporting by RTÉ. About 80 percent of this year’s fuel is hedged at roughly $67 a barrel, with the remaining fifth exposed to the spot market. The company still expects a full-year profit, though below last year’s record.

Why winter flying loses money

European short-haul demand falls sharply between November and March. There are fewer leisure trips, and the ones that happen pay lower fares, while the airline still carries the fixed cost of its aircraft, crews, and airport agreements.

Ryanair still fills its aircraft in winter; its rolling 12-month load factor is 94 percent. The problem is not empty seats but the low fares needed to fill them, set against costs that do not fall.

Most carriers accept a winter loss and earn it back in summer. When a major cost like fuel spikes, that math gets worse, and the rational response is to fly fewer sectors rather than burn expensive fuel on lightly booked flights.

Hedging is the buffer. An airline locked in at $67 barely feels $140, while one that is lightly hedged feels all of it. That gap is why China’s big three airlines posted a combined loss this year, and why Finnair suspended its Helsinki to Dubai route for the winter.

A warning aimed at rivals

Ryanair said that if oil stays high into summer 2027, European short-haul fares will “increase materially,” and that some “less well-hedged competitors will struggle to maintain capacity or even survive this winter season.”

The framing is partly self-interested. Ryanair is Europe’s largest low-cost airline and tends to gain market share when weaker carriers retrench. Even so, the fuel pressure is real across the sector.

Ryanair’s own growth still depends on Boeing 737 MAX deliveries, which have repeatedly slipped behind schedule and forced earlier cuts to the same traffic target. The airline’s shares rose about 2 percent on the day of the announcement.